- Global circulation models (GCMs), developed in the 1990s, are used to make predictions and projections about the future viability of coffee farming.
- GCMs divide the world into a three-dimensional grid that extends from the bottom of the oceans up to the outer atmosphere.
- Computer processing power since the 1990s has allowed the cell sizes to become smaller, which allows for more localised predictions.
- Where GCMs lack regional accuracy, advances in this type of technology have introduced Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
- Using this technology C Bunn et al., (2014) project a 49% loss of climate-compatible land by 2050 for growing the arabica species.
- Areas of low climatic risk for arabica coffee production are defined as having an average temperature between 18° C and 22° C (64–72° F), annual water deficit less than 100 mm (4 in), and frost probability less than 25%.
- The upper limit for daily temperature averages 32° C (90° F) for coffee production, a level already reached in Zambia.
- Climate change, eco-decay, and low genetic diversity are the major problems facing the coffee industry.
- The coffee industry occupies a land area of 10 million hectares (about 39,000 square miles).
- The more severe the effects of climate change become, the more drastic the response will need to be be.
- Response will involve on-farm adaptations and the planting of new and more pest- and climate-resistant cultivars.
- More-drastic measures may involve the incorporation of some other species of coffee into breeding programs.
- The most severe climate impacts may require farms to relocate to higher altitudes and a shift to higher and lower latitudes. Both of these solutions represent an overly loss of climate compatible land.
Emission inventory the list of greenhouse gas emissions in a certain geographical area